I have been asked many times for a guideline when it comes to evaluating investments that we (or our Clients) make. People ask why we invested in Company X and not in Company Y, Why are we interested in industry A more than industry B etc.

Well, the simple truth is that we invest to win.

We tend to strip out a lot of soft factors and focus on results.
Did management deliver?
Can they do it again?
A lot of investment decision making is based on an understanding of industry trends, a trusted relationship with players that perform consistently above industry average and some form of defensible proprietary technology that is in demand because it solves a specific pain for a given market segment.

If a company has a specific target market segment in their crosshairs, we know that they have done their homework – when management states that they serve all industries, our alarm bells start ringing.

Following is my personal guideline for what really counts when considering investment in a startup or early stage company.

1) Market potential
2) The Team
3) Results
4) USP

Investment Process

• The success of investment in an early stage company depends on people and their ability to execute on a detailed business plan, therefore a lot of emphasis is placed on the team.
• The structure of the investment is vital and requires creative and often complex terms.
• Pricing is a key factor which needs to be carefully analyzed and negotiated.
• An interesting exit strategy is required in order to maximize a timely return.

Investment Selection

• Management Team: Experienced, in-depth knowledge of business, results oriented.
• Innovative Products/ Proprietory Technology: Highly differentiable, superior, specialized expertise, meets market needs.
• Business Plan/ Milestones: Well thought out business plan including milestones and contingency plans.
• Substantial Investment Position: Ability to obtain a substantial investment position, influence the selection of executive management and the strategic direction of the company.
• Valuation: Negotiate and obtain a fair pricing structure.

Initial Investment Valuation

• Underlying industry assumptions
• Realistic income statement over 3-5 years
• Competition
• Major criteria:
  • Technology value
  • Capital requirements
  • Market potential
  • Capital structure
  • Operational cash flow

Determination of NAV for privately held startup companies

• The original cost: An approximation of the fair market value at the time of the transaction.
• Write off: NAV calculation at cost, less any write-off deeemed necessary if subsequent performance fails to meet business plan forecast.
• Capital increase: NAV calculation in principle based on the capital increase price, less 10% to 29% discount if deemed necessary based on valuation factors.
• Write up: A write up is recognized when a significant event occurs such as increased profitability and achievement of milestones.

I spent a good amount of time reviewing business opportunities in China both locally and from abroad in 2006/7. The overwhelming conclusion I drew was that there is enormous potential in almost every sector of the economy driven by both foreign demand and local consumption capacity. Some companies were not able to produce enough product to satisfy local and regional demand let alone national demand in China yet, as I stepped into the reality that is the China of today, I discovered that I needed to shed my preconceived ideas that China’s production capacity exists to serve foreign interests. Sure, international markets are of great importance to the Chinese manufacturing sector but, the number of companies I reviewed that produced product for export only were few and far between.

China is a gigantic market just getting ready to shift into a consumer oriented phase. So, what exactly was I doing in China? Well, I figured that if I could identify sectors with the strongest production growth this would give me some insight into a future global trend that helps to answer my number one question… what is going to be the next big thing? and… how can I come up with a best guess estimate before the world wakes up and smells the coffee?

So here is what I did. I reviewed the following industries and their largest manufacturing partners in China.
Lighting: including LEDs and Displays
Optics: lenses of all shapes and sizes including x-ray… yes, x-ray lenses!
Sensors: the kind that are able to sense 5 particles per million for security applications fighting potential terrorist threats
Actuators: MEMS, NEMS MOEMS and NOEMS… don’t even ask plus medical testing devices
Storage: mechanical HDDs are on their way out or are they? I had a 100 GB solid state drive in my hand
Semiconductors: What is the biggest obstacle to progress on Moore’s law these days… I found out!
Energy: Well, with the rising price of fossil fuels alternative is the only way and improving methods of harvesting energy were on the list of the coolest inventions I saw
Biotech or as it’s known today… life science – DNA manipulation seems to be all the rage but what caught my attention was the ability of some companies to grow skin and…

Ok, enough! if I haven’t bored you by now you are probably wondering what this article is all about.
Well, I thought that if I were able to analyze what is being produced today and get an idea of what is coming down the pipe to satisfy the needs of tomorrow then I could gain some valuable insight into who will manufacture the next big hit for tomorrow… for several different industries and kind of hedge my bet. I got lucky, I discovered something even more valuable.

In my research I analyzed all major players in the above industry sectors and put together something like a roadmap for each. Although the time lines vary as each company plans to move its invention from the R&D phase into production and no one is able to forecast consumer or business demand for 5 years from today, there were some very interesting correlations. One was size. Products will be getting smaller – fact. Another was that products will be influenced more by market need (pull) rather than an inventor’s desire to create a new market (push). Lastly, ROI is playing a greater role in how long a particular invention is allowed to cook in the R&D labs before it is forced out the door to an awaiting and already expectant consumer market.

How about a summary of my thoughts? OK, take the current products manufactured today, do research on where they are headed, look into the components that enhance or add value to each of these products and see if there are a few companies that produce the next generation of these components – then limit the study to less than 10 industries where these components are bound to have major impact.

Do you see where I am headed with this now? If I can identify companies that produce something really small on a micro or even nano scale that improves today’s products and will be integral in moving tomorrow’s products forward, I will have successfully identified a winner in not one but several industries.

In my most recent estimation, there are not a lot of these players out there but they do exist and I am hunting them down one by one. Did I mention that I am already in discussions with one?

Yes, I believe that I have identified the first of several of these core component providers. If you have read my article this far, then you may want to contact me to learn more because information this hot, can not yet be published in an open forum. Alas, the search continues and a new project is born to narrow down the hunt for the next big thing.

Most guides to writing an executive summary miss the key point: The job of the executive summary is to sell, not to describe.

The executive summary is often your initial face to a potential investor, so it is critically important that you create the right first impression. Contrary to the advice in articles on the topic, you do not need to explain the entire business plan in 250 words. You need to convey its essence, and its energy.

You have about 30 seconds to grab an investor’s interest. You want to be clear and compelling.

Forget what everyone else has been telling you. Here are the key components
that should be part of your executive summary:

1. The Hook
Lead with the most compelling statement of why you have a really big idea. This sentence (or two) sets the tone for the rest of the executive summary. Usually, this is a concise statement of the unique solution you have developed to a big problem. It should be direct and specific, not abstract and conceptual. If you can drop some impressive names in the first paragraph you should—world-class
advisors, companies you are already working with, a brand name founding investor. Don’t expect an investor to discover that you have two Nobel laureates on your advisory board six paragraphs later. He or she may never read that far into your doc.

2. The Problem
You need to make it clear that there is a big, important problem (current or emerging) that you are going to solve, or opportunity you are going to exploit. In this context you are establishing your Value Proposition—there is enormous pain and opportunity out there, and you are going to increase revenues, reduce costs, increase speed, expand reach, eliminate inefficiency, increase effectiveness, whatever. Don’t confuse your statement of the problem with the size of the opportunity (see below).

3. The Solution
What specifically are you offering to whom? Software, hardware, service, combination? Use commonly used terms to state concretely what you have, or what you do, that solves the problem you’ve identified. Avoid acronyms and don’t try to use these precious few words to create and trademark a bunch of terms that won’t mean anything to most people. You might need to clarify where you fit in the value chain or distribution channels—who do you work with in the ecosystem of your sector, and why will they be eager to work with you. If you have customers and revenues, make it clear. If not, tell the investor when you will.

4. The Opportunity
Spend a few more sentences providing the basic market segmentation, size, growth and dynamics—how many people or companies, how many dollars, how fast the growth, and what is driving the segment. You will be better off targeting a meaningful percentage of a smaller, well-defined, growing market than claiming a microscopic percentage of a huge, heterogeneous, mature market. Don’t claim you are addressing the $24 billion widget market, when you are really addressing the $85 million market for specialized arc-widgets used in the emerging wocket sector.

5. Your Competitive Advantage
No matter what you might think, you have competition. At a minimum, you compete with the current way of doing business. Most likely, there is a near competitor, or a direct competitor that is about to emerge (are you sufficiently paranoid yet??). So, understand what your real, sustainable competitive advantage is, and state it clearly. Do not try to convince investors that your key competitive asset is your “first mover advantage.” Here is where you can articulate your unique benefits and advantages. Believe it or not, in most cases, you should be able to make this point in one or two sentences.

6. The Model
How specifically are you going to generate revenues, and from whom? Why is
your model leverageable and scaleable? Why will it be capital efficient? What are the critical metrics on which you will be evaluated—customers, licenses, units, revenues, margin? Whatever it is, what impressive levels will you reach within three to five years?

7. The Team
Why is your team uniquely qualified to win? Don’t tell us you have 48 combined years of expertise in widget development; tell us your CTO was the lead widget developer for Intel, and she was on the original IEEE standards committee for arc-widgets. Don’t just regurgitate a shortened form of each founder’s resume; explain why the background of each team member fits. If you can, state the names of brand name companies your team has worked for. Don’t drop a name if it’s an unknown name, and don’t drop a name if you aren’t happy to give the contact as a reference at a later date.

8. The Promise
When you are pitching to investors, your fundamental promise is that you are going to make them a boatload of money. The only way you can do that is if you can achieve a level of success that far exceeds the capital required to do that. Your Summary Financial Projections should clearly show that. But if they are not believable, then all of your work is for naught. You should show five years of revenues, expenses, losses/profits, cash and headcount. You should also show a key driver or two, such as number of customers and units shipped each year.

9. The Ask
This is the amount of funding you are asking for now. This should generally be the minimum amount of equity you need to reach the next major milestone. You can always take more if investors are willing to make more available, but it is hard to take less. If you expect to be raising another round of financing later, make that clear, and state the expected amount.

You should be able to do all this in six to eight paragraphs, possibly a few more if there is a particular point that needs emphasis. You should be able to make each point in just two or three simple, clear, specific sentences.

This means your executive summary should be about two pages, maybe three. Some people say it should be one page. They’re wrong. (The only reason investors ask for one page summaries is that they are usually so bad the investors just want the suffering to be over sooner.) Most investors find that there is not enough information in one page to understand and evaluate a company.

Please remember that the outline above should not be applied rigidly or religiously. There is no template that fits all companies, but make sure you touch in each key issue. You need to think through what points are most important in your particular case, what points are irrelevant, what points need emphasis, and what points require no elaboration.

Some other general points:
! Do not lead with broad, sweeping statements about the market opportunity. What matters is not market size, but rather compelling pain.
Investors would rather invest in a company solving a desperate problem for a small growing market, than a company providing an incremental
improvement for a large established market.

! Drop names, if they are real; don’t drop names if they are smoke. If you have a real partnership with a brand name company, don’t hide your
lantern under a bushel basket. If you consulted for Cisco’s HR department one week, don’t say you worked for Cisco.

! Avoid “purple farts”—phrases and adjectives that sound impressive but carry no substance. “Next generation” and “dynamic” probably don’t mean
anything to your readers (unless you are talking about DRAM) and tend to be irritating. Everybody thinks their software is “intelligent” and “easy-to-use,” and everyone thinks their financial projections are “conservative.” Explain your company the way you would to a friend at a cocktail party (after one drink, not five).

! State your value proposition and competitive advantage in positive terms, not negative terms. It is what you can do that is important, not what others cannot do. With the one or two most obvious competitors, however, you may need to be very explicit: “Unlike Cisco’s firewall solution, our software can operate…”

! Use simple sentences, not multi-tiered compound sentences.

! Use analogies, as long as you are clarifying rather than hyping. You can say you are using the Google model for generating revenues, as long as
you don’t say you expect to be the next Google.

! Don’t lie. You would think this goes without saying, but too many entrepreneurs cross over the line between passionate enthusiasm and
fraudulent misrepresentation.

! Go back and reread each sentence when you think you’re done: Is each sentence clear, concise and compelling?

Finally, one of the most important sentences you write will not even be in the executive summary—it is the sentence that introduces your company in the email that you or a friend uses to send the executive summary. Your summary might not even get read if this sentence is not well-crafted. Again, it should be specific and compelling. It should sell your company, not just describe it. Venture investors are predisposed to like entrepreneurs. Many were entrepreneurs in prior lives, and all enjoy the challenge and excitement of starting up companies. Most are on your side. So please help them get to know you better by telling your story clearly and concisely.

There are more than 60 years of combined healthcare experience between our senior staff consultants to date. We are fortunate to have on staff the former chairman of the board of Point Pleasant Hospital, a 20 year veteran of HP Medical and other leading healthcare organizations and a former director of General Electric Medical Services covering a broad range of healthcare process and management issues for our Clients. To be a bit more specific, they consult some of the largest and most reputable hospitals in Switzerland on a wide variety of topics to help their Clients establish, clarify and meet specific business driven objectives. These objectives are often financial related but more recently, the focus has been on softer targets such as patient comfort, duration of stay issues, architectural interior designs that make guests feel more comfortable and improvements in efficiency through implementation of technology.

A few of the hot consulting projects today relate to topics such as implementing DRG and RFID. The original objective of diagnosis related groupings (DRGs) was to develop a patient classification system that related types of patients treated to the resources they consumed. Since the introduction of DRGs in the early 1980’s, the healthcare industry has evolved and developed an increased demand for a patient classification system that can serve its original objective at a higher level of sophistication and precision. To meet those evolving needs, the objective of the DRG system had to expand in scope. Today, there are several different DRG systems that have been developed. They include:

• Medicare DRG
• Refined DRGs (RDRG)
• All Patient DRGs (APDRG)
• Severity DRGs (SDRG)
• All Patient Refined DRGs (APRDRG)
• International-Refined DRGs (IRDRG)
• German DRGs (G-DRG)

The overall purpose of such classification is to improve ROI while simplifying insurance related issues and thus, many hospitals have DRG on their agendas modeling and improving upon what has been learned in the 20+ years of US experience and applying it to European healthcare projects.

The other hot topic is RFID which stands for radio frequency identification. Among other things, this allows for easier inventory taking if each product in a given organization such as a hospital has a tiny bar code sized RFID tag on it or embedded into it. The objective is not only to reduce theft but also to track items such as medicine so that each patient gets only the medicine that has been prescribed for that specific individual. This helps to reduce the many deaths caused by human error when hospital staff mistakenly administer the wrong medicine to a patient during medicine distribution rounds.